Estimate the chance of at least three total goals from home and away scoring-rate inputs. The result uses a transparent Poisson model and is not a live match prediction.
The page models total goals as a Poisson random variable whose rate is the sum of the two entered scoring expectations. It computes the probability of three or more goals.
Results use the assumptions shown on this page. Actual settlement may differ under operator, jurisdiction, or market-specific rules.
With home expected goals of 1.55 and away expected goals of 1.15, λ is 2.70. The Poisson estimate for three or more goals is about 50.64%, corresponding to fair decimal odds near 1.975.
| Input or result | Value |
|---|---|
| Home / away xG | 1.55 / 1.15 |
| Combined λ | 2.70 |
| Over 2.5 probability | ≈ 50.64% |
The two rates are added and a Poisson distribution gives the chance of three or more total goals.
The selection wins when the settled match total is at least three goals.
Their expected values are entered separately but combined into one total-goals Poisson rate for this calculation.
No. It is a simplified model estimate that depends heavily on the quality of the scoring-rate inputs.
Use expected-goal inputs for the exact period covered by the market; standard football totals often exclude extra time.
| Item | Definition |
|---|---|
| Input format | Poisson assumptions |
| Primary output | Probability of over 2.5 |
| Precision | Full internal precision; display rounded for readability |