#057 · Betting Calculator

Expected Goals to Match Odds Calculator

Convert two expected-goals inputs into 1X2 probabilities and fair decimal odds with an independent Poisson score model.

Calculator

Enter your values

Home expected goals

Away expected goals

Changing an input marks the displayed result for recalculation.

Convert two expected-goals inputs into 1X2 probabilities and fair decimal odds with an independent Poisson score model.

P(goals = k) = e^(−xG) × xG^k ÷ k!. Home, draw and away probabilities sum the corresponding score-pair probabilities.

Calculations are informational. Actual grading, limits, deductions and payouts follow the operator’s rules.

With home xG 1.60 and away xG 1.10, the model sums Poisson score probabilities to produce margin-free 1X2 prices.

This browser-based tool uses only the values entered on this page. It does not retrieve live odds, predict results or connect to a betting account.

Intermediate calculations retain full JavaScript precision; display values are rounded for readability.

Which model converts xG to match odds?

The calculator uses independent Poisson goal distributions for the two teams.

Do the odds include bookmaker margin?

No. The displayed decimal odds are margin-free model odds.

Are home and away goals assumed independent?

Yes. That simplification can miss score correlation and match-state effects.

What score range is summed?

The implementation sums 0 through 25 goals for each team and renormalizes the tiny omitted tail.

Are these odds a match prediction?

No. Results depend entirely on the xG inputs and simplified model assumptions.

Confirm the odds format, stake basis, market scope and settlement rule before relying on the result.

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