How to use this betting tool
- Enter decimal odds.
- Estimate how often the bet half-wins, pushes and half-loses.
- Calculate the remaining full-win probability required for zero expected profit.
- Review the implied full-loss share.
#094 · Handicap & Totals Settlement Tool
Handicap Break-Even Probability Calculator
Estimate a break-even full-win rate for handicap markets with partial settlements. Known half-win, push and half-loss probabilities are included instead of treating every non-win as a full loss.
Calculator
Enter assumptionsx
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What this tool calculates
The equation solves for the unknown full-win probability while the entered partial-settlement probabilities remain fixed.
0 = FW×(odds−1) + HW×½(odds−1) − HL×½ − FL, where FL = 1−FW−HW−Push−HL.
The entered outcome probabilities must be mutually exclusive. This does not infer them from a handicap line or predict a match.
Worked example
At odds 1.95 with 5% half wins, 8% pushes and 5% half losses, the full-win rate needed is solved alongside the remaining full-loss rate.
| Full win | Profit = odds − 1 |
|---|---|
| Half win | Half of full profit |
| Push | Zero profit |
| Half loss | −0.5 stake |
| Full loss | −1 stake |
Tips and limitations
- Use probabilities for settlement outcomes, not score probabilities that overlap.
- Quarter lines create half outcomes; whole lines may push.
- If the solved probability falls outside the feasible remainder, the fixed assumptions cannot break even.
FAQ
How do half wins affect break-even probability?
A half win earns half the normal profit, reducing the full-win rate required compared with treating it as a push.
How is a half loss represented?
Half the stake loses and half pushes, so net profit is minus 0.5 stake.
Does a push count as a win?
No. A push has zero net profit and the stake is returned.
Can I use this for Asian quarter handicaps?
Yes, if your estimated probabilities correctly describe full win, half win, push, half loss and full loss outcomes.
Why can the result be infeasible?
The fixed half-win, push and half-loss shares can leave too little probability for the required mix of full wins and losses.
Related betting tools
Settlement profit per $1 stake
| Full win | odds − 1 |
|---|---|
| Half win | (odds − 1) ÷ 2 |
| Push | 0 |
| Half loss | −0.5 |
| Full loss | −1 |
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