How to use this betting tool
- Enter the projected mean for the pitcher statistic.
- Enter an integer or half-point prop line.
- Select over or under and add offered decimal odds.
- Calculate Poisson win, push and loss probabilities.
#098 · Basketball Baseball & Hockey Tool
Baseball Pitcher Prop Calculator
Model a pitcher count prop such as strikeouts from an entered mean. The Poisson assumption is transparent and convenient, but real performance can be more or less variable than this model.
Calculator
Enter assumptionscount
count
x
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What this tool calculates
The Poisson distribution assigns probabilities to non-negative integer counts. For whole lines, an exact tie is a push; half lines have no push.
P(X=k) = e⁻λ λᵏ ÷ k!. Conditional fair win probability = P(win) ÷ [P(win)+P(loss)] when pushes are possible.
The model assumes variance equals the mean and does not account for pitch count, opponent, park, weather, injuries or lineup changes.
Worked example
With a mean of 6.2 strikeouts and a 5.5 line, over wins at 6 or more. The calculator sums the Poisson probabilities for all counts in that region.
| Mean λ | 6.2 |
|---|---|
| Line | 5.5 |
| Over wins | 6 or more |
| Push | Impossible on half line |
Tips and limitations
- Use integer or half-point lines for count props.
- A mean projection is not itself the probability of going over.
- Poisson may understate or overstate tail risk for a particular statistic.
FAQ
How is an over probability calculated from a pitcher projection?
The calculator sums Poisson probabilities for every integer count above the entered line.
What happens on a whole-number prop line?
An exact count equal to the line is a push and is removed when calculating conditional fair odds.
Can I use this for pitcher strikeouts?
Yes, as a simplified count model, provided you accept the Poisson assumptions.
Why can the Poisson model be inaccurate?
Actual pitcher outcomes may have variance different from the mean and depend on playing time, opponent and game context.
How is EV per $1 calculated with a push?
Win probability is multiplied by odds minus one, loss probability loses $1, and push probability contributes zero.
Related betting tools
Poisson settlement
| Count above line | Over win |
|---|---|
| Count below line | Under win |
| Count equal whole line | Push |
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