#099 · Racing Tennis & Individual Sports Tool

Tennis Set Betting Calculator

Build exact 2–0 and 2–1 score probabilities for a best-of-three tennis match. You can use a different Player A win probability for each set; sets are assumed independent.

Calculator

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How to use this betting tool

  1. Enter Player A’s win probability for each possible set.
  2. Select an exact best-of-three score.
  3. Add the offered odds and stake.
  4. Calculate fair odds and expected value under the independent-set model.

What this tool calculates

Straight-set outcomes use the first two set probabilities. Three-set outcomes sum the two ways the players can split sets one and two before the match winner takes set three.

A 2–0 = p₁p₂. A 2–1 = [p₁(1−p₂)+(1−p₁)p₂]p₃. B outcomes use the complementary set probabilities.

Retirements, walkovers, changing serve order, fatigue and score-dependent set strength are not modeled.

Worked example

If Player A has a 60% chance in every set, A 2–0 is 0.6 × 0.6 = 36%, while A 2–1 is 28.8%.

A 2–036.0%
A 2–128.8%
B 2–016.0%
B 2–119.2%

Tips and limitations

  • All four exact scores should sum to 100%.
  • Set probabilities are inputs, not inferred from match odds.
  • Use best-of-three only; best-of-five needs a different tree.

FAQ

How is a 2-1 tennis score probability calculated?

Add the two ways the first two sets can be split, then multiply by the probability that the selected player wins set three.

Why can each set have a different probability?

Serve order, fatigue and matchup assumptions may change by set, so the calculator accepts separate inputs.

Do the four exact scores sum to 100%?

Yes, under a completed best-of-three match with independent set outcomes.

How are retirements settled?

They are not modeled; bookmaker retirement and walkover rules differ.

Can this calculate best-of-five scores?

No. Its probability tree is specifically for first-to-two-sets matches.

Best-of-three exact scores

Player A wins2–0 or 2–1
Player B wins2–0 or 2–1
Total probability100%

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