Compare your estimated win probability with the break-even probability implied by decimal odds, then measure the probability edge and expected value.
Compare your estimated win probability with the break-even probability implied by decimal odds, then measure the probability edge and expected value.
Calculations run locally in your browser. No betting data is transmitted.
At odds 2.10 with a 52% estimate and a $100 stake, break-even is 47.62%, the edge is 4.38 percentage points, and expected profit is $9.20.
Treat the entered probability as an assumption, not a forecast supplied by the calculator. Compare like-for-like markets and use unrounded odds.
This informational tool does not recommend a wager or guarantee a result. Confirm operator terms and local rules.
Break-even probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Probability edge = your probability − break-even probability. Expected profit = stake × (probability × odds − 1).
No. Every value is entered and calculated locally in your browser; no odds or account data is fetched.
Operators may apply different market definitions, rounding, commission, void, overtime, or jurisdiction-specific rules.
Calculations use JavaScript numeric precision and values are rounded only for display, normally to two decimal places.
No. The output describes the entered numbers and assumptions; it does not predict an event or guarantee a return.
Use calculations to understand arithmetic and assumptions. Set limits, never chase losses, and seek support if betting stops being recreational.
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