Use this calculator to estimate third party risk annual expected loss from transparent, editable assumptions. It converts operational frequency, cost, probability, staffing, or control data into a clear primary estimate and supporting measures. Use the output for scenario planning, prioritization, and budget discussions, while treating it as a model rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Percentages are converted to decimals before multiplication. Currency is rounded only for display.
The main result reports annual expected loss for the entered third party risk scenario. Supporting measures show the components behind the estimate so assumptions can be reviewed instead of treating the output as a black box.
Use consistent units and avoid combining unrelated incidents or business scopes. This planning estimate is not legal, audit, insurance, or security advice.
At 3 events per year, a 20% material-loss probability, and $200,000 combined impact, annual expected loss is $120,000.
The result responds directly to every input. Change one value at a time to see which assumption drives the modeled outcome.
Yes, where zero is meaningful. Inputs used as divisors, such as cost, staff, period, or efficiency, must remain above zero.
No. It is a planning estimate based only on the values entered and cannot capture every operational dependency or incident detail.
Update assumptions after a major incident, control change, vendor change, access review, or whenever reliable new cost and frequency data becomes available.
Yes. Keep the measurement scope consistent, record each set of assumptions, and compare the resulting main and secondary metrics.
| Input | Unit | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Events per year | events | Entered scenario assumption |
| Loss probability per event | % | Entered scenario assumption |
| Direct loss per event | $ | Entered scenario assumption |
| Indirect loss per event | $ | Entered scenario assumption |