Estimate annual loss remaining after Security Operations Center detection and response. Model incident frequency, loss per incident, the share detected by the SOC, and the loss reduction achieved when detected incidents are contained effectively.
The main result is the probability-weighted annual financial loss remaining after the modeled controls.
This model supports comparison and budgeting; it does not predict the amount of any individual incident.
With 18 incidents, $120,000 loss each, 80% detection, and 55% reduction on detected incidents: baseline loss is $2.16M and residual expected loss is $1,209,600.
Count events that would create the modeled average loss without effective SOC response, not every alert or log event.
Undetected incidents retain the full average loss in this model; detected incidents receive the selected response reduction.
Alert volume alone is not enough. Use validated coverage of relevant threats or measured incident detection performance.
Yes, if the average loss reduction estimate reflects the financial effect of faster investigation and containment.
Yes. A value such as 2.5 can represent a longer-term annual average.
| Variable | Meaning | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Incident frequency | Material incidents expected annually | events/year |
| Average loss | Loss without effective SOC response | USD/event |
| Detection coverage | Share detected by the SOC | % |
| Response reduction | Loss avoided on detected incidents | % |