Estimate the probability of at least one covered loss event when several independent exposure opportunities occur during a year. The calculator also extends that probability across a selected planning horizon and shows the expected event count. Use a probability based on your own records or a defensible risk assessment; the model does not supply an industry benchmark.
The result estimates whether one or more events occur, not their severity or whether insurance will cover them.
Independence and a constant event rate are simplifying assumptions. Correlated events can make this estimate unreliable.
With 3 independent exposures at 8% each, the annual no-loss probability is (1 − 0.08)3; subtract it from 1 for the at-least-one-loss probability.
No. It provides a planning estimate using your inputs; policy selection requires review of terms, exclusions, limits, price, and personal or business circumstances.
Use a clearly defined scenario. A severe but plausible covered loss is useful for stress testing, while a typical loss is better for expected-value analysis.
Use your own credible loss history or a documented risk assessment. Do not treat the calculator default as an industry benchmark.
No. Enter values that reflect expected covered amounts and separately review exclusions, waiting periods, sublimits, and aggregation wording.
Insurers use underwriting data and policy language not modeled here. Actual payments also depend on evidence, adjustment, deductibles, limits, and coverage decisions.
| Input concept | How to use it |
|---|---|
| Financial amounts | Use one currency and the same policy period. |
| Probability | Enter a percentage from 0% to 100% based on defensible evidence. |
| Retention or deductible | Use the amount paid by the insured before eligible coverage responds. |