Estimate loss probability for flood insurance using transparent assumptions you control. The tool converts exposure, cost, policy, and probability inputs into a main planning result plus supporting figures. Use it to compare scenarios before reviewing actual quotations and policy wording with a qualified insurance professional; it is not underwriting, legal advice, or a promise of coverage.
Use the estimate as a consistent comparison measure for flood insurance decisions. It does not replace a full exposure analysis or policy review.
Insurance availability, definitions, pricing, taxes, and claim treatment vary by insurer and jurisdiction.
With an 8% annual probability over 10 years, cumulative probability is 1 − (1 − 0.08)^10 = 56.6%; no-event probability is 43.4%.
No. It is a planning estimate. Actual payment depends on policy wording, exclusions, limits, deductibles, evidence, and the insurer's claim decision.
Include them when they are part of the cost or exposure you want to evaluate, and use the same basis across every option.
Use documented loss history, hazard studies, insurer modeling, or professional advice. Test several values when the probability is uncertain.
The numeric result alone is not enough. Review triggers, waiting periods, sublimits, exclusions, valuation rules, and payment timing separately.
Insurers may use detailed underwriting data, geographic or operational models, policy definitions, minimum premiums, and jurisdiction-specific rules not captured here.
| Input concept | How to use it |
|---|---|
| Financial amount | Use consistent current-dollar estimates and avoid counting the same loss twice. |
| Probability or share | Enter the displayed percent directly; 8 means 8%, not 0.08. |
| Policy term | Verify the limit, retention, trigger, and payment share against actual wording. |