Convert historical qualifying events and exposure years into a simple annual loss probability estimate, then project the chance of one or more events over a chosen horizon. Add a credibility weight to blend limited internal experience with an external assumption you provide.
The main result translates the entered assumptions into a consistent planning estimate. Supporting results show the major components so you can identify which input drives the outcome.
This calculator is an educational planning tool. It does not determine coverage, liability, compliance, a statutory deadline, or a guaranteed outcome.
The calculator opens with a complete example scenario. Select Calculate to reproduce the displayed result, then replace each value with your own documented assumptions.
Change one input at a time. Probability, volume, cost, duration, or precision assumptions typically have the largest direct effect on the displayed estimate.
No. It is a planning estimate based on your inputs. Review policy wording, applicable law, facts, and professional advice before acting.
Run low, expected, and high scenarios and document why each assumption is reasonable.
Actual outcomes can differ because events, enforcement, contracts, data quality, exclusions, operational delays, and legal interpretation are not fully captured.
Use the best available values and avoid early rounding. The calculator rounds only displayed results where practical.
| Input type | Use |
|---|---|
| Amounts and volumes | Use current, documented scenario values. |
| Percentages | Enter percentages as displayed, such as 5 for 5%. |
| Time periods | Keep annual, monthly, and daily units consistent. |