Model a financial exposure scenario for a potential corporate compliance enforcement matter using assumptions you control. Combine a maximum modeled penalty, affected units or periods, estimated enforcement probability, remediation credit, defense and response cost, and potential insurance recovery. The calculator shows gross modeled consequence, probability-adjusted exposure, net exposure after recovery, and the effect of remediation assumptions. It is a scenario tool—not a legal opinion, liability assessment, or forecast of an authority's decision.
Gross consequence combines the modeled penalty after remediation credit with response cost. Probability-adjusted exposure weights that gross amount by the entered scenario probability. Net exposure shows the modeled amount remaining after expected recovery without changing legal liability.
Legal penalties, settlement factors, defense costs, and insurance recoverability are fact-specific and may change. Obtain current legal and coverage advice before relying on any scenario.
A $50,000 modeled penalty applied to 4 violations gives a base penalty of $200,000. A 15% remediation credit reduces that component to $170,000; response cost is then added before probability weighting or recovery.
Penalty rules depend on jurisdiction, authority, violation type, period, and current law. User input avoids treating a changing or inapplicable statutory amount as universal.
It is the modeled monetary consequence multiplied by the entered probability of the enforcement scenario. It is a scenario-weighted planning value, not a prediction.
Use only a supportable scenario assumption. A percentage reduction is not guaranteed and should reflect advice or precedent relevant to the actual facts.
No. The entered recovery affects modeled net financial exposure only. Coverage, exclusions, deductibles, insurability, and public policy must be assessed separately.
No. It does not determine a violation, enforcement outcome, penalty methodology, or coverage. It only performs arithmetic on user-entered scenario assumptions.
| Output | Includes | Does not mean |
|---|---|---|
| Base penalty | Per-unit amount × units | A legally determined fine |
| Gross consequence | Reduced penalty + response cost | Probability-weighted loss |
| Probability-adjusted exposure | Gross × entered probability | A forecast or reserve conclusion |
| Net exposure | Gross less modeled recovery | Reduced legal liability |