Forecast the active population of a game-server cohort over time. Enter a starting cohort, constant monthly retention rate, forecast horizon, and optional monthly reactivation rate. The calculator reports projected active players, cumulative losses, and the break-even retention needed to hit a target population.
The recurrence is applied once for every month in the chosen horizon.
The forecast is a planning baseline under constant rates. Actual retention usually changes by player age, content cadence, season, and acquisition source.
Reactivated players are modeled as a fixed share of the original cohort each month and may push the total above the starting cohort.
Starting with 25,000 players at 85% monthly retention and 0.5% monthly reactivation produces the displayed 12-month forecast.
No. It follows one starting cohort and only adds the reactivation amount you specify.
A large recurring reactivation assumption can add more players than churn removes.
Yes. Each month only the modeled reactivation amount will remain after the first step.
Use the metric your team consistently treats as active and keep it unchanged across periods.
It is a useful baseline, but mature cohort curves often need month-specific rates for higher accuracy.
| Component | How it enters the forecast |
|---|---|
| Starting cohort | Month-zero active players |
| Retention | Share carried into the next month |
| Reactivation | Fixed share of start added monthly |
| Horizon | Number of recurrence steps |