How to use this calculator
- Choose a starting cohort measured on one consistent date.
- Enter the share expected to remain each period.
- Set the number of equal-length forecast periods.
- Add optional revenue per active player-period.
#2863 · Sports & Gaming Tool
Player Retention Retention Forecast Calculator
Forecast how many members of a starting cohort remain active in a player-retention program. Enter the initial cohort, retention rate per period, forecast length, and revenue per active player to see the ending active count, players lost, cumulative active-player periods, and projected cohort revenue.
Calculator
Planning inputsFormula
Ending active players = starting players × retention rateperiods
Cumulative active-player periods = Σ(starting players × retention ratei), i = 0…periods−1
What the result means
The ending count shows the surviving cohort in the returning-player campaign; cumulative active-player periods measure the total engagement available during the forecast window.
The same retention rate is applied every period. Real cohorts often decay at different rates over time.
Example calculation
Starting with 10,000 players at 85% retention for 6 periods leaves about 3,771 active players. The cohort contributes about 41,523 active-player periods and $124,570 at $3 per active-player period.
Tips for better results
- Keep cohort and period definitions consistent.
- Use observed cohort retention when possible.
- Build separate forecasts by acquisition source.
- Compare a base, downside, and upside rate.
- Update the forecast when new periods mature.
Frequently asked questions
Is retention compounded in this forecast?
Yes. Each period retains the entered percentage of the players active in the prior period.
Does the starting period count toward cumulative activity?
Yes. The cumulative total includes the starting cohort as period zero and then each surviving cohort before the final endpoint.
Can I use weekly retention instead of monthly retention?
Yes, as long as the rate, forecast periods, and revenue input all use weekly units.
Why can the ending count include a fraction of a player internally?
The forecast is an expected cohort average; the displayed ending count is rounded to a whole player.
What if retention changes after an update or event?
Run separate phases or scenarios because this calculator applies one constant rate across the full horizon.
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Retention Forecast inputs and outputs
| Measure | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Ending active | Expected survivors after all periods |
| Players lost | Starting cohort minus ending active |
| Cumulative activity | Total active-player periods available |
| Cohort revenue | Cumulative activity × revenue per active period |