Project how many players from a starting live operations cohort may remain after a chosen number of periods. Enter the cohort size, the retention rate applied to each period, and the forecast horizon. The calculator shows the retained count, expected losses, and cumulative retained player-periods. It is a transparent constant-rate scenario, useful as a baseline rather than a substitute for observed cohort curves.
Remaining players = Starting cohort × (Retention rate)Periods
Cumulative retained player-periods sum the expected retained cohort after each modeled period.
The forecast gives an expected cohort size if the same retention factor repeats every period. A retained player-period represents one player retained for one modeled interval.
Actual retention usually changes with cohort age. Replace the constant-rate assumption with observed period-by-period rates for operational forecasting.
For 10,000 starting players, 80% retention per period, and 6 periods, remaining players are 10,000 × 0.8⁶ = 2,621 when rounded. The expected loss is about 7,379 players.
It means the same share of the remaining cohort is retained in every forecast period.
Yes. Treat each period as a week and enter a weekly retention rate; keep the period definition consistent.
The model assumes a stable rate, while real cohorts are affected by seasonality, content, acquisition mix, and player age.
The main estimate shows a rounded count, while the underlying exponential calculation can produce a fractional expected value.
Yes. At 100%, the forecast keeps the full starting cohort in every modeled period.
| Variable | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Starting cohort | Players present at period zero |
| Retention per period | Fraction carried into each next period |
| Forecast periods | Number of repeated retention intervals |
| Player-period | One retained player for one interval |