Formula
Contribution per paid ticket = net ticket revenue − variable cost
Required paid attendance = ceil((fixed costs × (1 + contingency %) + complimentary guests × variable cost) ÷ contribution)
What the result means
Break-even occurs when paid-ticket contribution covers fixed costs, the contingency reserve, and the variable cost of complimentary guests. If ticket price is not higher than variable cost, attendance alone cannot create break-even.
Planning estimate only. Confirm vendor terms, contracts, venue rules, accessibility requirements, and local safety limits before committing.