Forecast final completions for an adaptive learning program using the cohort’s current status and an explicit assumption for how many active learners will finish. This separates completions already achieved from future completions still at risk. The result helps course teams plan certificates, follow-up communication, and learner support without pretending that elapsed time alone determines the final outcome.
The forecast estimates the final cohort total if the entered share of currently active learners completes. It does not assume withdrawn or inactive learners return.
The elapsed percentage is shown for context and does not mechanically change the forecast. Update the active-learner completion assumption as new cohort evidence arrives.
For 500 enrolled learners, 120 completed and 260 still active, assuming 65% of active learners finish produces 169 additional completions, 289 projected completions, and a 57.8% projected completion rate.
No. It provides timing context; the forecast is driven by completed learners, active learners, and the active-learner completion assumption.
No. The calculator validates cohort counts and caps the projection at enrolled learners.
Include them as active only if your operating definition considers them likely and eligible to resume.
This model uses a transparent scenario and does not assume inactive learners return unless you include them in the active count.
Update it after meaningful changes in activity, deadlines, assessments, or learner-support interventions.
| Input | Role |
|---|---|
| Enrolled learners | Denominator for projected completion rate |
| Already completed | Completions secured to date |
| Still active | Learners eligible for future completion |
| Expected active completion | Scenario assumption applied to active learners |