How to use this calculator
- Enter the starting cohort.
- Add a realistic rate for each required stage.
- Calculate the compounded completion forecast.
- Compare the stage assumptions with actual cohort data.
#3442 · Education Tool
Virtual Classroom Completion Forecast Calculator
Estimate how many learners are likely to complete a program delivered through virtual classroom resources. Instead of applying a single blanket percentage, this forecast separates the stages that reduce the starting cohort. That makes it easier to see whether access, participation, assessment, or retention assumptions are driving the expected outcome and where intervention could recover completions.
Calculator
Cohort forecastFormula
Forecast completions = enrolled learners × attendance rate × assessment pass rate × retention rate.
What the result means
The result is the expected number of learners who satisfy every modeled stage. The displayed completion rate is the forecast divided by the starting cohort.
This is a planning scenario, not an individual prediction. Rates should come from comparable cohorts and be refreshed as actual data arrives.
Example calculation
For 800 learners with 82% attendance, 88% assessment pass, and 90% retention, the forecast is 520 completions, or a 65.0% modeled completion rate.
Tips for better results
- Use rates from the same learner population when possible.
- Run a conservative and an optimistic scenario.
- Focus improvement work on a weak stage that can actually be influenced.
- Avoid mixing attendance measured per session with attendance measured per course.
- Track actual versus forecast completions after each cohort.
Frequently asked questions
Why are the forecast rates multiplied instead of averaged?
Each rate represents a successive condition a learner must pass, so the surviving group from one stage becomes the starting group for the next.
Can this forecast be used for a partially completed cohort?
Yes. Enter the learners remaining at the current point and use forward-looking rates for the stages still ahead.
Does a zero rate produce an error?
No. A valid zero percent produces zero forecast completions; percentages outside 0% to 100% are rejected.
How should I set the baseline completion rate?
Use a comparable recent cohort with similar course length, learner population, and requirements rather than a broad institutional average.
Is the completion forecast a guarantee?
No. It is a scenario based on the entered rates and should be updated as actual participation data becomes available.
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Forecast stages
| Stage | Role |
|---|---|
| Attendance | First eligibility factor |
| Assessment Pass | Second eligibility factor |
| Retention | Final completion factor |