Forecast apiary honey production from current colony count, yield per colony, annual colony growth, and expected productivity change. The result gives an annual harvest estimate plus the projected colony count and cumulative honey output, making it easier to plan containers, extraction capacity, labor, and sales without treating a single season as a guarantee.
The main result is the estimated honey harvest in the final forecast year. The cumulative figure adds the modeled harvest for each year in the horizon.
Weather, forage, queen performance, disease, and winter survival can move actual yield substantially. Use this as a capacity-planning scenario, not a production guarantee.
With 80 colonies yielding 55 lb each, 5% annual colony growth, and 2% annual productivity growth, the year-3 forecast is about 5,405 lb from about 93 colonies. Cumulative modeled production over three years is about 15,165 lb.
Use the marketable extracted yield that can actually be stored or sold.
Yes. Enter a negative percentage when expected losses exceed splits and purchases.
Yes. Colony count and yield per colony are compounded separately for the selected horizon.
No. It sums forecast years 1 through the selected horizon.
Forage, weather, disease, queen quality, and overwintering survival can change production.
| Input | Meaning | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Current productive colonies | Count colonies expected to contribute to the baseline harvest. | colonies |
| Current yield per colony | Use marketable honey after normal extraction losses. | lb |
| Annual colony growth | Net annual change after splits, purchases, and colony losses. | % |
| Annual yield change per colony | Expected change in productivity, separate from colony growth. | % |
| Forecast horizon | Whole or partial years are accepted. | years |