Estimate the average value generated by a randomized reward table. Enter each reward tier’s value and probability, then account for the number of drops earned per session. The result separates expected value per drop from expected value per session, making it useful for balancing rewards, comparing queue incentives, or checking whether a loot system gives away more virtual value than intended.
Session value equals expected value per drop multiplied by drops per session.
Expected drop value is a long-run average, not a promise about any single opening. It lets designers compare reward tables on one common value scale.
Probabilities are treated as independent. This model does not include pity timers, duplicate protection, or changing odds.
With values of 1, 8, and 50 credits at chances of 70%, 25%, and 5%, expected value is 5.20 credits per drop. Three drops produce an expected session value of 15.60 credits.
Yes. The calculator treats the remainder as an outcome with zero assigned value.
Expected value is a long-run average; short sequences can vary substantially because each drop is random.
No. It assumes independent probabilities that do not change after previous outcomes.
Use one consistent basis. Market value works for tradable items, while a designer-defined utility score can compare nontradable rewards.
Expected session value is the expected value of one drop multiplied by the number of independent drops.
| Variable | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Reward value | Comparable value assigned to a tier |
| Drop chance | Probability of receiving that tier |
| Drops per session | Independent reward rolls earned |