Estimate the expected value of a random in-game drop before spending time or money chasing it. Enter the item value, drop chance, number of attempts, and cost per attempt to compare the average gross value with the expected cost. The result describes a long-run average, not a promise that any individual session will produce the item.
A positive expected net value means the average item value exceeds the attempt cost over many comparable sessions. Actual outcomes remain volatile, especially when the drop rate is low.
Drop attempts are assumed to be independent and to use a constant probability. Pity systems, changing odds, resale fees, and time value are not included unless reflected in your inputs.
With a $50 item, a 5% drop chance, 20 attempts, and a $1 attempt cost, expected gross value is $50.00, total cost is $20.00, expected net value is $30.00, and the chance of at least one drop is about 64.15%.
No. Expected value is a long-run average; a single session can still produce no valuable drop.
Convert it to 0.5% and enter 0.5 in the drop chance field.
Yes. Session expected value counts the average value across all attempts, including the possibility of more than one success.
Repeated attempts overlap probabilistically, so the exact calculation uses one minus the chance of failing every attempt.
You can assign an hourly value to your time and convert it to a per-attempt amount if opportunity cost matters to your decision.
| Variable | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Item value | Value received for one successful drop |
| Drop probability | Chance of success on each independent attempt |
| Attempt cost | Direct cost associated with one attempt |
| Session EV | Long-run average gross value across planned attempts |