Test how carbon offset procurement costs could change when credit prices rise or fewer planned credits remain eligible. The calculator combines price risk and eligibility risk into a future replacement budget, making the two drivers visible instead of collapsing them into a single score.
Future cost = Eligible credits × Future price + Ineligible credits × Replacement price. Transition exposure = Future cost − Current planned cost.
The main result estimates added procurement cost if credit prices change and some planned credits require replacement. It does not assign a probability to that scenario.
Eligibility may change with claims rules, buyer standards, registry status, authorization, or vintage restrictions. Review the specific program rather than relying on this estimate alone.
For 5,000 credits, 85% eligible at a future $30 and 15% replaced at $38, future cost is $156,000 versus $80,000 now. Transition exposure is $76,000.
Changes in claim rules, methodologies, registry status, vintage limits, authorization, or buyer policy can affect eligibility.
A compliant replacement may have a different price from the remaining eligible portion of the original plan.
No. Add those separately when they are material to the scenario.
Yes. If the future mixed cost is below today's planned cost, the result represents a modeled decrease.
It is a user-entered scenario assumption, not a forecast or independent assessment of the credits.
| Variable | Meaning | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Planned credits | Total intended procurement | credits |
| Expected eligible | Share retained under future rules | % |
| Future price | Unit price for retained eligible credits | USD/credit |
| Replacement price | Unit price for credits that must be replaced | USD/credit |