Estimate the paid attendance required for an event to cover fixed costs, variable costs, and a chosen profit target. This festival capacity tool also shows contribution per ticket and revenue at the break-even point, making the key assumptions easy to audit.
The main result is the smallest whole paid attendance that meets the modeled cost and profit target.
This planning estimate is sensitive to ticket mix, refunds, taxes, fees, settlements, cost overruns, and whether non-ticket revenue is actually secured.
With $110,000 fixed costs, $45 net ticket revenue, $15 variable cost, $20,000 other revenue, and a $25,000 profit target, the gap is $115,000 and contribution is $30. Required attendance is 3,833.34, rounded up to 3,834 paid attendees.
Use the net amount the event retains after refunds, taxes, and fees that are not available to cover event costs.
Otherwise each additional attendee adds no positive contribution toward fixed costs or profit.
Confirmed other revenue reduces the fixed-cost and target-profit gap before attendance is calculated.
A partial attendee cannot be sold, and rounding down would leave the modeled target unmet.
No. Actual sales mix, refunds, taxes, fees, cost overruns, and unconfirmed revenue can change the outcome.
| Variable | Role |
|---|---|
| Fixed costs | Must be covered regardless of attendance |
| Net ticket revenue | Retained revenue per paid attendee |
| Variable cost | Incremental cost per attendee |
| Other revenue | Reduces the funding gap |