Estimate how many autonomous delivery robots are needed for a daily order volume. The model uses delivery cycle time, service hours, productive utilization, charging downtime, successful-delivery rate, and a reserve allowance. It returns the active fleet, total fleet to deploy, net deliveries per robot, and capacity utilization.
The total fleet combines capacity-driven active robots with a reserve. It assumes demand and cycle times are sufficiently balanced across the service area.
Public-space operations may also be constrained by permits, supervision ratios, weather, curb access, and remote-assistance capacity.
For 800 deliveries, a 28-minute cycle, 14 service hours, 75% utilization, 15% downtime, 94% success, and 12% reserve, each robot completes about 17.98 successful deliveries/day. That requires 45 active robots and 51 total robots.
Yes. Enter the full time until the robot is ready for another delivery, including loading, outbound travel, handoff, and repositioning or return.
The success-rate adjustment removes unsuccessful attempts from net completed-delivery capacity.
The reserve supports breakdowns, charging conflicts, maintenance, and demand variation without reducing planned service capacity.
Yes, but then define a cycle as a route and enter the average successful deliveries completed per route by adjusting the effective cycle time.
No. Use peak-period inputs or a routing simulation when hourly concentration determines fleet size.
| Input | Unit | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Deliveries per day | deliveries | User-provided planning input. |
| Minutes per delivery cycle | min | User-provided planning input. |
| Service hours per day | hours | User-provided planning input. |
| Dispatch utilization | % | User-provided planning input. |
| Charging/maintenance downtime | % | User-provided planning input. |
| Successful delivery rate | % | User-provided planning input. |
| Reserve fleet allowance | % | User-provided planning input. |