Estimate how long an elective surgery waiting list would take to clear using staffed operating rooms, scheduled hours, average case and turnover time, working days, and emergency or priority reserve. The calculator compares weekly case capacity with the existing list and shows the date-neutral clearance time, monthly capacity, and extra weekly cases needed to meet a chosen wait goal.
The main result is the theoretical number of weeks to process the current list if no new cases are added. The goal gap shows whether current modeled capacity is enough to clear that fixed backlog within the selected period.
Real waiting lists are dynamic: new referrals, urgency changes, cancellations, specialty blocks, staff availability, and case-duration variability are not modeled. Do not use the result to predict an individual patient’s surgery date.
For 420 cases, 8 rooms, 10 hours/day, a 140-minute cycle, 5 days/week, and 15% reserve:
No. It calculates time to clear a fixed current list; continuing arrivals require a backlog-flow model.
No. Individual timing depends on urgency, specialty, clinical readiness, and scheduling decisions.
Use it for scheduled room time unavailable to the modeled elective list, such as emergency or priority capacity.
Use the full average case cycle that blocks the room, including relevant turnover.
New cases, cancellations, staffing constraints, specialty blocks, and duration variability can all reduce realized throughput.
| Measure | Formula | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly capacity | Room time ÷ cycle × elective share | Modeled throughput |
| Clearance time | Waiting list ÷ weekly capacity | Fixed-list weeks |
| Goal throughput | Waiting list ÷ goal weeks | Cases/week needed |