How to use this calculator
- Enter daily revenue per active player.
- Use contribution margin after variable costs.
- Enter a retention rate below 100%.
- Add acquisition cost and cohort size for a net cohort estimate.
#2857 · Sports & Gaming Tool
Matchmaking Queue Player Lifetime Value Calculator
Forecast gross player lifetime value from revenue per active player, contribution margin, and retention. This compact cohort model converts day-over-day retention into an expected active lifetime and shows both revenue LTV and margin-adjusted LTV. Use it for scenario planning, acquisition budget checks, and comparing monetization or retention changes without assuming a fixed industry benchmark.
Calculator
Cohort economicsFormula
Expected active days = 1 ÷ (1 − daily retention)
Contribution LTV = ARPDAU × expected active days × contribution margin
Contribution LTV = ARPDAU × expected active days × contribution margin
What the result means
The main result estimates contribution generated by one acquired player over an idealized geometric retention curve.
This is a steady-rate cohort model. Real retention curves usually change over time, so validate the assumption with cohort data.
Example calculation
At $0.25 ARPDAU, 92% daily retention, and 70% margin, expected active lifetime is 12.5 days. Gross LTV is $3.13 and contribution LTV is $2.19.
Tips for better results
- Use contribution margin rather than gross margin when acquisition decisions depend on avoidable costs.
- Calculate retention from one consistent cohort definition.
- Run conservative and optimistic retention scenarios.
- Keep organic and paid cohorts separate.
- Update ARPDAU for regional or platform mix.
Frequently asked questions
Why must daily retention be below 100%?
A constant 100% retention rate produces an infinite lifetime in this geometric model.
Does player LTV include acquisition cost?
The main LTV does not. Acquisition cost is shown separately in the cohort contribution comparison.
What does contribution margin remove from revenue?
It removes the variable costs entered in your margin assumption, such as platform fees or service delivery costs.
Can I use monthly retention instead?
Not directly. Revenue and retention must use the same time interval; convert both to monthly inputs or use daily inputs.
Why might this estimate differ from cohort revenue?
Actual retention and monetization change over time, while this model assumes constant daily values.
Related calculators
LTV model variables
| Input | Role |
|---|---|
| ARPDAU | Gross revenue per active player-day |
| Retention | Constant next-day return probability |
| Margin | Revenue share retained after variable costs |