Formula
Incremental carbon exposure = emissions × max(stress price − current price, 0)
Revenue exposure = exposed revenue × disruption %
Uncovered exposure = max(total exposure − mitigation spend, 0)
What the result means
The main result is gross modeled exposure before mitigation. The uncovered figure is a simple comparison with spending, not proof that each dollar of spending removes a dollar of risk.
Transition risk is broader than these two components. Use scenario-specific evidence and avoid adding unlike impacts if their time horizons or probability bases differ.