Translate a home care referral backlog into an intake waiting-time estimate. This calculator compares new weekly referrals with assessment or admission capacity, then shows the approximate queue delay, whether the backlog can shrink, and how much capacity is needed to reach a chosen target. It is intended for access planning, not for prioritizing individual clinical cases.
Queue delay ≈ backlog ÷ weekly capacity
Backlog clearance time = backlog ÷ (capacity − new referrals), when capacity exceeds arrivals
The queue-delay result is a flow-based approximation. It assumes referrals are served in a broadly consistent order and that arrivals and capacity remain steady.
Urgent referrals should follow clinical triage rules; this average estimate must not delay time-sensitive care.
A backlog of 75 people with capacity for 50 intakes per week implies a 1.5-week queue delay. With 42 new referrals each week, the backlog shrinks by 8 weekly and clears in about 9.4 weeks if rates remain stable.
Backlog represents work ahead in the queue, while capacity indicates how quickly that work can be completed.
The backlog grows and there is no finite clearance time until capacity rises or incoming demand falls.
No. Triage, geography, staffing skills, and care urgency can change an individual timeline.
Enter the desired target; the calculator reports an approximate weekly intake capacity needed to reach it over one target-length period.
Use completed dispositions consistently. If withdrawals remove work from the queue, account for them in historical net capacity.
| Item | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Result | Calculation |
| Queue delay | Current backlog ÷ weekly capacity |
| Weekly backlog change | New referrals − completed intakes |
| Clearance time | Backlog ÷ weekly net reduction |
| Capacity for target | Arrivals plus backlog reduction needed |